Now, let’s add to the data. First, here’s what it looks like when we include the post positions that were not filled in last time.
pp
No.
horse name
♂/♀ age
grades
solodarity
multiple win
mark
1
1
Justin Palace
♂6
【5-3-1-7】
50%
56%
◎
2
Croix du Nord
♂３
◎
2
3
Cosmo Kuranda
♂4
【1-0-4-13】
6%
27%
○
4
Deep Monster
♂7
○
3
5
Sunrise Earth
♂4
【3-1-1-15】
20%
25%
◎
6
Ho O Biscuits
♂5
◎
4
7
Danon Beluga
♂6
【0-2-0-18】
10%
10%
△
8
Calandagan
4
△
5
9
Seiun Hades
♂6
【0-2-0-18】
10%
10%
△
10
Struve
6
△
6
11
Admire Terra
♂4
【0-2-0-18】
10%
10%
△
12
Yoho Lake
♂7
△
7
13
Brade Weg
♀5
【1-1-1-21】
8%
12%
○
14
Danon Decile
♂4
○
15
Masqurade Ball
♂3
○
8
16
shin Emperor
♂4
【0-0-2-23】
0%
7%
×
17
Durezza
♂5
×
18
Tastiera
♂5
×
And now, let’s overlay it with the data from the previous analysis.
pp
No.
horse name
♂/♀ age
mark
pp mark
last race
last time
1
1
Justin Palace
♂6
×
◎
◎
○
2
Croix du Nord
♂３
◎
◎
×
×
2
3
Cosmo Kuranda
♂4
○
○
◎
×
4
Deep Monster
♂7
×
○
○
◎
3
5
Sunrise Earth
♂4
○
◎
○
○
6
Ho O Biscuits
♂5
○
◎
◎
×
4
7
Danon Beluga
♂6
×
△
△
×
8
Calandagan
4
△
△
×
◎
5
9
Seiun Hades
♂6
×
△
◎
×
10
Struve
6
×
△
○
△
6
11
Admire Terra
♂4
○
△
○
△
12
Yoho Lake
♂7
×
△
○
○
7
13
Brade Weg
♀5
○
○
◎
×
14
Danon Decile
♂4
○
○
×
△
15
Masqurade Ball
♂3
◎
○
◎
◎
8
16
shin Emperor
♂4
○
×
×
×
17
Durezza
♂5
○
×
○
×
18
Tastiera
♂5
○
×
◎
×
Data is only data. In my case, it doesn’t always lead directly to the final conclusion.
That’s because horse racing is a competition between living beings — horses and humans.
Let me say this in advance: I will not be using (15) Masquerade Ball as my key horse.
With that in mind, please enjoy the next section.
🐎 Full-field analysis
This time, we’ll be checking three key points: data, course suitability, and past performance!
Performance will be evaluated based on turf races at Tokyo 2000–2400m.
I’ll be writing about all the horses, so it’s a long one. Feel free to skip to the horses you’re interested in, haha.
⚪️ 1. Justin Palace — 6 years old / Jockey: C. Demuro
Data: △
Course suitability: ○
Performance: △
He is a candidate for the supporting roles (a “himokouho”). His post position and course suitability are very good. His jockey’s brother also had a strong performance recently in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), finishing second on Museum M2. Last year, due to Do Deuce’s influence, the race turned into a slow pace, and Justin Palace was buried in the pack at the fourth corner — very unfavorable conditions. This year, I expect the pace to be high to mid. This horse performs best when he has an inside draw and a mid-pace flow. Including him as a “himo” will let you watch the race with peace of mind.
⚪️ 2. Croix du Nord — 3 years old / Jockey: Tomoichi Kitamura
Data: △
Course suitability: ◎
Performance: ◎
He is a major contender. Needless to say, he is the 2025 Derby winner at Tokyo. People may comment about his training, condition, etc., but take a moment and think calmly. This horse initially had the Arima Kinen direct route in consideration. Choosing to run in the Japan Cup instead likely means they’re aiming to avoid being heavily marked — and the fact that he’s running in great physical condition supports that. In the Satsuki Sho, he lost because the marking on him was too strict, forcing him to move early. In the Derby, there were no front-runners, which allowed him to take the initiative as a forwardly-placed horse — a big advantage. In this race, there will be five horses ahead during the first 1000m, and three of them will fade. He has the ability to accelerate from there, so he is a strong contender.
The only reason he’s not my key horse is because my key horse is simply stronger.
⚫️ 3. Cosmo Kuranda — 4 years old / Jockey: Tan’nai
Data: ×
Course suitability: ×
Performance: △
I’m eliminating him. I believe he has passed his peak. Also, up until today, he has never finished in the top three on the Tokyo turf. If anything, he performs better at Nakayama than Tokyo.
⚫️ 4. Deep Monster — 7 years old / Jockey: Matsuyama
Data: △
Course suitability: △
Performance: ×
I’m eliminating him. His age is a major concern. The data also isn’t convincing enough, so I’m cutting him this time. Although his final workout numbers are the best he’s ever had, compared to the rest of the field, I find him difficult to include.
🔴 5. Sunrise Earth — 4 years old / Jockey: Ikezoe
Data: ○
Course suitability: ○
Performance: ○
He’s a “himo” candidate. For this horse, who usually competes in the 2200–3000m range, the main concern is his gate behavior. Based on his past performances too, I think he fits well as a supporting pick. For a front-running horse, this post position is a positive factor 🎵
🔴 6. Ho O Biscuits — 5 years old / Jockey: Iwata (father)
Data: ○
Course suitability: ○
Performance: △
He’s a problem child. Personally, I’ll include him as a himo candidate, though there are reasons to cut him. I don’t get the impression that he can win a G1. But he does have good suitability for Tokyo, especially around the 2000m distance. Whether he can handle 2400m is the big question.
In his last race, the Tenno Sho (Autumn), who could have predicted such a slow pace? His strength in high-pace situations couldn’t be used at all due to the ride.
This time, although there are no clear front-runners, if we expect a high-pace scenario, including this horse is an option. I’ll be thinking about him right up until the final moments.
🔵 7. Danon Beluga — 6 years old / Jockey: Sasaki
Data: ×
Course suitability: △
Performance: ×
I’m eliminating him. His age and his last race performance are both weak points.
🔵 8. Carandagan — 4-year-old gelding / Jockey: M. Barzalona
Data: ◎
Course suitability: ?
Performance: ◎
Another problem child. To get straight to the point, I’m cutting him. The reason is that I expect a high-pace, fast-track race this time. Also, there’s a difference between overseas and Japanese racecourses. Looking at Karandagan’s races, he performs best in slow-paced races or on soft ground — these are his clear strengths. If he runs, he’s admirable, but I’ll eliminate him.
🟡 9. Seiun Hades — 6 years old / Jockey: Tsumura
Data: △
Course suitability: ○
Performance: △
I’m cutting him. As I mentioned in my Tenno Sho (Autumn) review, his course suitability is excellent, but his performance in G1-level races is a bit lacking.
I’m cutting him as well, for the same reasons as above.
🟢 11. Admire Terra — 4 years old / Jockey: Kawada
Data: ○
Course suitability: ○
Performance: △
He’s okay as a minor pick, but I’m cutting him this time. His condition is declining, and his movements over the past three preparatory races were weak.
🟢 12. Yoho Lake — 7 years old / Jockey: Iwata
Data: △
Course suitability: △
Performance: ○
I’m eliminating him. His age is a critical factor.
🟠 13. Brady Weg— 5 years old / Jockey: Tom Marquand
Data: △
Course suitability: ◎
Performance: ○
He’s a himo candidate. Actually, this horse excels at middle distances. He’s been forced to run mile races in the past, giving the impression he couldn’t win, but I believe that was a misjudgment. This is his last run. I want to see the pride of the Canaloua lineage shine. The only filly in the field — a passion bet.
🟠 14. Danon Decail — 4 years old / Jockey: Tosaki
Data: ○
Course suitability: ◎
Performance: ◎
He’s my key horse. A 2024 Derby winner and a returnee from overseas. Reasons for making him the key horse:
His workout time is his personal best +0.1s, showing he’s at his peak.
High potential to compete both from the front or from behind.
Post position is also favorable.
I expect a head-to-head showdown with Masquerade Ball.
🟠 15. Masquerade Ball
Data: ?
Course suitability: ?
Performance: ?
His post position is good, but there’s an issue: he’s a closer. With this post and running style, it’s a disadvantage. He could win in a slow pace like the Tenno Sho (Autumn), but this race is expected to be high-paced, making it a big disadvantage. I’ll consider him as an opponent candidate.
🟣 16. Shin Emperor — 4 years old / Jockey: Sakai
Data: ○
Course suitability: ◎
Performance: △
He’s a himo candidate, mainly based on his performance last year.
🟣 17. Durezza — 5 years old / Jockey: Pushan
Data: ○
Course suitability: ○
Performance: △
He’s a dark horse candidate. Same reasoning as above, but his running style gives him a slight disadvantage, so I’m inclined to cut him.
🟣 18. Tastiella — 5 years old / Jockey: Damien Lane
Data: ○
Course suitability: ○
Performance: ○
He’s a himo candidate. 2023 Derby winner, strong and capable. However, this generation has strong quirks. Their preferred racecourses are very specific (e.g., Bellagio Opera). Tastiella likes Tokyo Racecourse, but the concern is the outside post.
🙆 summary
◎ Danon Decail
○ Masquerade Ball / Croix du Nord
△ Justin Palace / Sunrise Earth / Ho O Biscuits Shin Emperor / Durezza / Tastiella
Dark horse (穴) Brady Weg
This is the current lineup. I’ll update if there are any changes.
Hello everyone! The autumn horse racing season is reaching its climax, and the year-end mood is finally setting in. This time, we’ve summarized the Japan Cup (JC), which is often called the “symbol of international racing” in Japanese horse racing!
In this article, we’ll cover the following topics:
[:contents]
Will this year’s champion be a three-year-old horse, or an older horse? Or will it be the world’s strongest horse, Calandagan?
Let’s dive in!
🌏 Features of the Japan Cup
The Japan Cup is an international Grade 1 turf race of 2400m held annually at Tokyo Racecourse in late November. The main attraction is the “Japan’s strongest vs. the world’s best” showdown, with top contenders from all over the world gathering.
・Location: Tokyo Racecourse
・Distance: 2400m turf ・Eligibility: 3 years old and above, International G1 ・Total Prize Money: ¥500 million for 1st place
One distinctive feature is that the race invites the world’s top horses. Although fewer overseas horses participate in recent years, the race still holds immense value as a “world-class event.”
Speaking of Tokyo 2400m, the long straight immediately after the start reduces the influence of post positions. It’s a course where true ability often directly translates to results—truly a “merit-based” race.
Also, the Japan Cup is harder to predict pace-wise than other races. Some years see fast tracks, while others with more overseas entries tend to be slower, adding to the unpredictability.
🏆 History of the Japan Cup
The Japan Cup was established in 1981 to internationalize Japanese horse racing. At the time, Japanese horses couldn’t compete with overseas horses, and in the early years, foreign horses dominated.
However, from the late 1990s to the 2000s, Japanese horses became stronger. Especially during the era of famous horses like El Condor Pasa, T.M. Opera O, and Deep Impact, Japan produced world-class racehorses, raising the international status of the race even further.
In recent years, iconic moments include Almond Eye’s record-breaking win and Equinox’s overwhelming victory. Both are remembered as “world-class horses winning the JC at a world-class level.”
In this way, the Japan Cup is also a stage that shows “how far Japanese horse racing has reached world standards.”
🎯 Positioning of the Japan Cup
The Japan Cup is the ultimate race in the autumn older horse middle-distance circuit and serves as the second leg of the Autumn Older Horse Triple Crown (Tenno Sho Autumn → JC → Arima Kinen).
While the Tenno Sho Autumn at 2000m is a “speed and acceleration battle,” the JC at 2400m is a “test of overall ability.” The distance changes, and the required abilities shift accordingly.
Among these, the Japan Cup is a stage where ability is most directly tested. Additionally, its status as an International G1 and its large prize money attract the world’s top competitors.
Therefore, the Japan Cup is strongly positioned as the “decider of Japan’s strongest horse”. Recent JC winners often enter the top ranks of the world rankings the following year.
🔥 Horses to Watch in 2025
Now, let’s take a look at the top contenders for this year’s Japan Cup!
① Croix du Nord – 3-year-old – Yuichi Kitamura
Croix du Nord
A star horse needing no introduction, representing the 3-year-old protagonists. Tokyo 2400m is the same stage where he won this year’s Japanese Derby. It’s said that if other 3-year-olds win, their value rises even without winning yet.
The Japan Cup, which tests endurance, is the perfect stage for his abilities. Will any horse take the lead against this duo?
② Masquerade Ball – 3-year-old – C. Lemaire
Masquerade Ball
The reigning Tenno Sho Autumn champion, Masquerade Ball, has a new jockey replacing Sakai. He hasn’t yet taken the lead against Croix du Nord, but it’s clear he has grown in strength. Can he make amends for his Derby disappointment on his preferred Tokyo middle-distance stage? This is his debut with a new rider.
③ Danon Desile – 4-year-old – Keita Tosaki
Danon Desile
The 2024 Derby winner who always gives us something interesting every time he runs. Overseas-returned horses will be looking forward to facing a Japanese horse after nearly a year. His abilities are endorsed even by Justin Milano. The stage is set! His father’s timer hasn’t kicked in yet, making him an intriguing contender.
④ Shin Emperor – 4-year-old – Rusei Sakai
Shin Emperor
Both horse and rider aim for the very top of the world—nothing less.
He debuted last year on the main track, but his jockey became world No.1 first. Shin Emperor should have grown as well, aiming for his first G1 victory this year.
⑤ Brady Vague – 5-year-old – Jockey Marca
Brady Vague
The only filly in the race, making a comeback. Her jockey Marca aims to become the best in the world. A fast-maturing daughter of Canario, she is known for her early bloom in 2023 Elizabeth Queen’s race. Her first 2400m is untested. Will she challenge the title and match Almond Eye’s 2020 feat?
⑥ Calandagan – 4-year-old – Jockey Barzalona
Calandagan
First, take a look at the next image.
Calandagan’s Record https://hatenablog-parts.com/embed?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdb.netkeiba.com%2Fhorse%2F2021190001db.netkeiba.com
Quoted from Netkeiba. This year, Calandagan is the only overseas entrant. His record is 13 starts, 7 wins 【7-5-1-0】. He is currently one of the strongest European horses. He has placed in every single one of his 13 races. If he wins, it will be the first foreign victory since Arcasset (UK) in 2005, a 19-year gap. In the next section, I’ll discuss how differences between overseas and Japanese racecourses might be a key point.
👀 Key Points for Race Projection
When predicting the Japan Cup, it is easier to keep the following points in mind:
Pace is hard to read, but slow to average is typical
Leaders rarely hold on to win
Mid-field to back runners can still make a difference
Horses with the fastest finishing speed tend to win
This year in particular, horses coming from behind are strongly favored. With 2400m compared to the Tenno Sho Autumn, horses can save energy and make a big finishing move.
Let’s briefly touch on Calandagan, who has been winning based on sheer ability.
The Japan Cup was created with the slogan “producing world-class horses.” However, recent challenges by foreign horses may seem low-level, with none placing in the top 3 in 13 years. This is a misconception.
The reason is the difference in track conditions. As seen in the previous Calandagan image, his July 26, 2025, turf 2390m time was 2:29.74.
In contrast, Almond Eye’s time was 2:20.6, and Equinox’s was 2:21.8.
It’s natural to think there is something different between overseas horses and Japanese tracks. Of course, the level of Japanese horses has risen overall.
Overseas turf is softer and races demand stamina. Japanese racecourses, however, are faster. The quality of races differs fundamentally.
When prize money rises to ¥700–800 million, perhaps more overseas horses will challenge the JC.
🐎 Summary
The Japan Cup is not just a G1 race, but a benchmark for the international competitiveness of Japanese horse racing. Historically, horses that win here are often remembered as legendary.
This year also gathers a strong field, making the “key contenders” more numerous than usual.
・Horses for which 2400m is ideal ・Horses that can finish strongly in Tokyo ・Horses capable of withstanding international G1 competition ・Horses in good form this year
Use these points as a reference for your predictions!
Next time, I’ll summarize the key data to watch for in the Japan Cup!
